CluenexHarley-Davidson HOG
Harley-Davidson scores weak on business quality (3.2 of 10). Here is why, in plain words, and what our sealed record shows.
Why it matters
- What Harley-Davidson does
Harley-Davidson builds heavy-weight motorcycles and finances rider loans through its financial services division, generating revenue primarily from discretionary enthusiast purchases. The firm is navigating declining top-line demand while maintaining cash reserves to support ongoing capital return programs.
- What it does best
Harley-Davidson maintains a powerful luxury lifestyle brand that commands a gross margin of 28.6%, allowing it to sell premium hardware despite broad volume pressures. This cultural lock-in keeps a loyal core demographic attached even as overall unit sales contract.
- The main risk
Fading top-line demand threatens cash generation, evidenced by free cash flow dropping to negative $133M alongside a revenue contraction of 13.8%. If unit sales continue to slide, the company risks exhausting its cash buffers while funding ongoing dividend and buyback commitments.
Quality, check by check
Scored against its own industry, from company filings.
Operating margin sits thin at 5.0% and free cash flow margin rests in the bottom quartile at the 2nd sector percentile, driven by negative cash generation of $133M. This structure shows the business struggles to expand margins as scale diminishes.
The brand relies on intangible consumer intangible assets and cult-like loyalty, sitting in the bottom quartile of its sector for gross margin at the 30th percentile. This narrow moat struggles to protect against shifting consumer preferences among younger demographics.
Revenue is contracting sharply at an annual rate of 13.8%, accelerating the downward trend seen across history annual summaries where revenue fell from $5.8B in 2023 to $4.2B. This contraction shows widespread fading demand across its primary motorcycle engine.
With cash of $3.1B against total debt of $3.0B, the balance sheet holds a net cash position of $125M, and interest coverage of 8.4x keeps debt costs manageable. However, free cash flow has turned negative at -$133M, pointing to a softer cash profile.
Insiders
Executives and directors, from SEC Form 4 filings we read ourselves. Open market trades only; grants, option exercises and pre-planned sales left out.
3 insiders bought $1.4M on the open market.
Our sealed record on HOG
Verdicts appear here 30 days after we publish them; members see today's. Each one is in the nightly ledger, fingerprinted the night it was made.
The first sealed verdicts appear here on Oct 11, 2026.
Questions
Harley-Davidson scores weak on the Cluenex quality check (3.2 of 10), measured against its own industry. Profitability is weak, moat weak, growth slow and financial health fair.
In the last 90 days of SEC Form 4 filings: 3 insiders bought $1.4M on the open market.
Oct 29, 2026.
See HOG today
- Today's verdict on HOG, and why
- Fair value with cautious, base and optimistic cases
- The exact price that would change the verdict
- Which stocks each signal names, the night it fires
Cite this page: Cluenex, “Harley-Davidson (HOG)”, https://cluenex.com/stocks/hog/, data as of Oct 10, 2026.