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Mattel MAT

Mattel scores weak on business quality (4.2 of 10). Here is why, in plain words, and what our sealed record shows.

Last price$16.69Oct 9, 2026
Business qualityWeak
Next earningsOct 27, 2026, after the close
Insiders, 90 daysSelling

Why it matters

  1. What Mattel does

    Mattel designs and sells toys like Barbie and Hot Wheels, generating $5.5 billion in revenue by licensing brands and selling physical products to families globally. The company is leaning heavily into expanding its intellectual property through entertainment partnerships and film tie-ins.

  2. What it does best

    Mattel dominates toy aisles with iconic heritage brands, sporting a 47.6% gross margin that beats peer BC at 25.6%. This pricing power stems from decades of emotional consumer attachment and deep retail entrenchment that new entrants cannot easily copy.

  3. The main risk

    Revenue contraction of 0.6% highlights ongoing demand stalls in core toy segments. If retail partners destock further, top-line shrinkage will directly crush already thin operating margins.

Quality, check by check

Scored against its own industry, from company filings.

ProfitabilityWeak

Operating margin sits at 9.3% and net margin at 7.8%, reflecting compressed profitability. Scale does not cleanly translate to higher margins given recent cost pressures.

MoatFair

Cultural brand equity locks in generations of consumers, supported by a gross margin in the sector's top quartile at the 68th percentile. Rivals lack the decades of IP scale required to replicate this ecosystem.

GrowthSlow

Revenue is shrinking at 0.6% annually, falling well into the bottom quartile of its sector at the 16th percentile. The growth engine is flatlining compared to historical periods.

Financial healthFair

Debt-to-equity of 1.0x leaves limited cushion, while interest coverage sits at 4.1x. Free cash flow dipped to $434 million, pointing to a softer financial base.

Insiders

Executives and directors, from SEC Form 4 filings we read ourselves. Open market trades only; grants, option exercises and pre-planned sales left out.

1 sold $587K outside pre-planned sales.

Our sealed record on MAT

Verdicts appear here 30 days after we publish them; members see today's. Each one is in the nightly ledger, fingerprinted the night it was made.

The first sealed verdicts appear here on Oct 11, 2026.

Questions

Is MAT a good business?

Mattel scores weak on the Cluenex quality check (4.2 of 10), measured against its own industry. Profitability is weak, moat fair, growth slow and financial health fair.

Are insiders buying MAT?

In the last 90 days of SEC Form 4 filings: 1 sold $587K outside pre-planned sales.

When does MAT report earnings?

Oct 27, 2026, after the close.

For members

See MAT today

  • Today's verdict on MAT, and why
  • Fair value with cautious, base and optimistic cases
  • The exact price that would change the verdict
  • Which stocks each signal names, the night it fires
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Cite this page: Cluenex, “Mattel (MAT)”, https://cluenex.com/stocks/mat/, data as of Oct 10, 2026.